A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
